Here’s Why It Seems Like Everyone You Meet in Austin Is from Out-of-State

This story was written by Mose Buchele and appeared on kut.org.

Here’s Why It Seems Like Everyone You Meet in Austin Is from Out-of-State

If it seems like most of the people you meet in Austin just moved here from some other state, it turns out, many of them have.

The numbers – analyzed by Brian Kelsey of the Austin-based economic research firm Civic Analytics – come from the IRS, which tracks where people file their tax returns from year-to-year.

Kelsey says Travis County ranked third among U.S. counties receiving the most new residents from other states – about 265,000 people came from out-of-state between 2011 to 2014.

Obviously, this isn’t something unique to Travis County – other big Texas counties get plenty of out-of-town transplants – but, he says, it feels more noticeable here.

“The interesting thing about Travis County is that newcomers coming from other states make up a larger share of the total population here,” he says. “Part of that [difference] is because Travis County is a smaller county than, say, Dallas County or Harris County. Given a hundred people you run into off the street, you’re more likely to run into somebody from another state than some of those other places.”

What’s more, only about a third of Travis County newcomers from 2011 to 2014 were from Texas – compared to 60 percent in Dallas and a near-50-50 split in both Bexar and Harris counties. Kelsey says that’s a relatively new trend.

“If you go back 10 years – even five or six years – the majority of people moving into Travis County were from other parts of Texas…based on this new data that’s actually now flipped,” he says.

Like last year’s analysis, which only examined 2012-2013 data, Florida tops the list of states other than Texas that sent the most citizens to the Austin area, followed by California, Georgia, New York and Illinois.

You can read Kelsey’s full analysis here.

Among Austin transplants, Florida is the new California

This story was written by Marty Toohey and appeared in the Austin American-Statesman on 09/05/15.

Among Austin transplants, Florida is the new California

“Californian” has for years been Austin’s shorthand for someone, usually of means, who moves here from another part of the country. But no more. Florida is the new California.

Here are five things to know about the newest migration pattern:

1. Nearly twice as many Floridians moved to Travis County in 2012-13 as did Californians. The Sunshine State sent 13,347 transplants here versus 7,959 from the Golden State,according to Internal Revenue Service data and further analysis by Austin economist Brian Kelsey. That ratio held for 2011-12 as well.

2. When you calculate net migration between Travis County and other states (people coming here minus people going there), Florida still remains the top feeder with 9,695 net arrivals. But New York (4,416 net arrivals) slipped past California (4,278) for the No. 2 spot. This trend held in 2011-12 as well.

3. Think it’s California tech money pushing up earnings? Floridians brought higher gross-adjusted incomes ($128,509 per household) than did Californians ($98,979) in 2012-13, according to the IRS data.

4. It’s not clear whether the Florida influx, which only surpassed California in the two most recent years of data, is a long-term pattern, Kelsey said. The IRS changed its methodology starting with the 2011-12 data by including late filers who previously weren’t counted and by better tracking people as they shift from a dependent to filing their own tax return, for instance.

5. Texans still by far make up the most people moving in and out of Travis County. But there’s a consolation prize for California: It remains the top out-of-state destination for people moving out of Travis County, edging out Florida in 2012-13 by 29 people.


 

Blame Florida? The Sunshine State Sends More Transplants to Austin Than California or NY

This story was written by Mose Buchele and appeared on KUT on 08/27/15.

Blame Florida? The Sunshine State Sends More Transplants to Austin Than California or NY

Sure, Austin revels in its youthful reputation, but a lot of the people coming here are probably not fresh-out-of-college looking to form a band or a startup.

A new look at income migration from the IRS shows that newly-arrived Austinites aren’t as young as previously thought. What’s more, the highest concentration of transplants isn’t from either of the tried-and-true drivers of Austin population growth, New York and California. They’re from Florida.

“There’s been some speculation lately that more and more retirees are picking Austin and this data certainly implies that that could be the case,” says Brian Kelsey with Civic Analytics, an Austin-based economic research firm.

The recently-released data tracks where people file their tax returns from one year to the next. He says people that are moving to Travis County are bringing a lot of money with them. In fact, the most recent 2012-2013 data show newly-arrived income in Travis County totaled about $2.3 billion dollars. Kelsey says that means many newcomers are probably older, maybe even retirees.

“If you look around the country at the counties that receive the most higher net worth people. It’s usually those destination retirement counties in Florida and Phoenix,” Kelsey says.

That brings us to the whole “California” thing. People are used to thinking California transplants were driving growth in Austin. Actually, Kelsey says, California’s in third place. New York is in second. The data puts Florida is in first place, for which, Kelsey says, there are a couple of reasons.

“Now we’re seeing Florida kind of coming out of nowhere. That could be something in the methodology that changed, where there was historically an undercount [of people] from Florida and that’s been corrected, or it could be that migration is actually increasing,” he says.

Kelsey says one thing’s for sure: People moving here with higher household incomes than the local average are able to pay more for things. That contributes to the local affordability issues we hear so much about.

“You’re going to see that show up in rents, you’re going to see that show up in housing costs,” he says. “And, just generally, it’s going to affect the aggregate amount of income in Austin for everything from discretionary money spent at restaurants to housing costs.”

Kelsey says the IRS plans to release more recent 2013-2014 data before the end of the summer.