Five observations on 2018 PCI data for counties

A few thoughts on today's release of 2018 income data for counties:

1) Income growth in Silicon Valley and the Bay Area continued at a mind-boggling pace. Among large counties with 500,000 or more in population five of the top ten ranked by real (inflation-adjusted) per capita income growth in 2018 are in California, led by Santa Clara and San Mateo at 4.5%. A reference point to the U.S. can help make the point in a different way. Real per capita income (PCI) in the U.S. was up about 1.9% in 2018. Nine large counties experienced real PCI growth that was more than double the U.S. rate--five were in Silicon Valley or the Bay Area.

1.a.) Season 6 is amazing so far.

2) Tulsa ranked #1 among large counties. It was the only one to reach 5% in real PCI growth in 2018. In fact, most of the state of Oklahoma appears to be doing well, at least according to PCI growth as a measure of economic well-being. The state’s two large counties ranked in the top twelve nationally (OKC was 12th at 3.4%) and real PCI grew in every one of the state’s larger counties with 50,000 or more residents, led by Washington at 8.3%.

3) The number of very high-income counties is growing, and the geographic concentration of those counties is shifting. In 2010 there were only five counties with PCI of $100,000 or more (in 2018 dollars). None were in California. Marin was the only CA county in the top ten; Santa Clara ranked 42nd. The number of counties with PCI of $100,000 or more grew from five in 2010 to nineteen in 2018. Three of the top ten were in California; Santa Clara went from 42nd to 15th. We now have one county with PCI of $250,000+ (Teton, WY), and New York may become the first large county to reach $200,000 when 2019 data is out.

4) I made this point over at the Capital of Texas Media Foundation research blog, where I write about Austin, but it’s worth repeating here. The pace of per capita income growth in some communities since the end of the last recession is astonishing. Twenty-two counties have seen real per capita income growth of at least 50% since 2010. Most of those counties have relatively few residents and are found in energy-driven local economies--10 of the 22 are in Texas and have fewer than 20,000 residents--but several large counties are on or are approaching that list as well, including Santa Clara (52%), San Mateo (48%), and SF (47%). Places like Denver (40%), New York (39%), and Seattle (38%) are not far behind.

5) It's interesting how closely Los Angeles and Chicago are tracking. In 2018 PCI was about $62,000 in Los Angeles and Cook County, and it also grew at about the same rate that year (2.3%). In fact, it's been very close since 2010, about 23% in Los Angeles and 22% in Cook. Both counties also experienced slight declines in population in 2018.